The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has listed reasons for the current expansion of the nation’s GDP.
MAN says it can attribute the factors responsible for the current size of Nigeria’s GDP predominantly to the justification provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the rebasing exercise.
Says MAN: “First, the expansion in GDP is largely due to broader sectoral coverage. For the first time, underreported and previously excluded sub-sectors such as the digital economy, modular refineries, entertainment and creative industries, water transport, and pension administration have been incorporated into national accounts. This expansion has understandably inflated the nominal value of GDP by capturing more of the economic activity occurring in these emerging areas.
“These sectors have experienced rapid growth and increasing formalization, significantly expanding the economic base and elevating overall GDP figures.
Second, there have been notable improvements in the quality and depth of data used to estimate GDP. Datasets from recent nationwide exercises, such as the National Business Sample Census, National Agricultural Sample Census, and Living Standards Surveys, have strengthened the estimation of informal sector activities, especially in agriculture and household consumption.
“Third, sectoral growth differentials have played a significant role. The services sector, particularly telecommunications, trade, real estate, and creative industries, grew rapidly in 2024. Similarly, agriculture’s share rose to 27.8%, largely as a result of improved enumeration of crop and livestock activities. These sectors have thus disproportionately influenced the expansion in GDP size.
“However”, MAN says, “the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing, continues to underperform”. “Between 2019 and 2021, industry contracted significantly in real terms, with only marginal recovery by 2023. Critically, manufacturing growth remains uneven and fragile across sub-sectors.”
“Like previously mentioned, while this statistical revision offer a clearer statistical portrait of Nigeria’s economy, they also expose the structural weaknesses in the country’s productive base, particularly in manufacturing, which is central to any ambition of building a resilient, competitive, and inclusive economy.”
MAN calls for urgent rebalancing of economic policies in favour of productive sectors, especially manufacturing. It notes that the current structure, that is heavily reliant on services and primary production, is not sustainable for long-term development.
MAN advises that Government should prioritize the following:
- Targeted industrial policy interventions to revive ailing sub-sectors such as textiles and vehicle assembly.
- Significant improvement in investment in energy infrastructure, particularly electricity reliability and gas supply to industrial zones.
- Data-driven support mechanisms, using insights from the improved GDP data to direct incentives and financing to high-potential but underperforming manufacturing clusters.
MAN says the rebased GDP should not be seen as an endpoint, but as a starting point for strategic reform. “If Nigeria is to achieve inclusive and sustained growth, manufacturing must move from the margins to the mainstream of economic policy,” it advises.
For MAN, “The GDP rebasing is welcome as a critical statistical upgrade that enhances the accuracy of national accounts and reflects structural changes in the economy. However, it reveals worrisomely that Nigeria is not industrializing yet, and that its economic expansion is not backed by productive transformation.”
