Food Commodity Prices Updates Staple food and input markets across East Africa showed mixed month-on-month trends, shaped by seasonal supply, currency fluctuations, and import costs. Maize prices rose in Tanzania (US$285 → US$306, up 7.4%) due to tight stocks and strong regional demand, while Uganda fell (US$411 → US$381, down 7.3%) as new harvests boosted supply easing pressure on markets. Other maize markets saw smaller gains from moderate stock depletion. Rice recorded the steepest increase in Rwanda (US$1,104 → US$1,222, up 10.7%) on import delays and currency weakness, and Tanzania rose 5.8% on strong demand, while Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan posted modest declines due to improved availability. Beans surged in Tanzania (up 8.3%) and Uganda (up 6.2%) on reduced supply and export demand, while Rwanda and Kenya saw minor gains reflecting steady supply conditions. Wheat prices eased slightly in Kenya and Ethiopia on stable global supply and lower import costs. Fertilizer markets were most volatile, with Rwanda’s NPK spiking 19.95% on higher import costs, while Uganda saw dramatic decline: DAP plunged 51.95% and NPK fell 22.95% as new shipments entered the market. Kenya posted moderate declines across all fertilizer types, reflecting improved supply and easing global prices. Southern Africa’s staple food markets show mixed month-on-month trends as well, driven by seasonal supply dynamics, currency fluctuations, and import costs. Maize prices fell sharply in Malawi (US$729 → US$660, down 9.5%) due to improved supply, while Zambia rose moderately (US$276 → US$284, up 2.9%) on seasonal demand, and Mozambique remained stable with a slight uptick. Rice prices surged across the region, led by Malawi (US$2,190 → US$2,432, up 11%) on seasonal pressures and currency weakness, and Mozambique (US$934 → US$1,036, up 10.9%), while Zambia climbed 8.4% to US$3,033, reinforcing its premium market status. Beans showed contrasting movements, with Mozambique plunging 21% to US$1,017 on improved availability, while Malawi edged up 2.8% to US$3,608, maintaining the region’s highest price. Fertilizer markets were relatively stable, with Malawi’s NPK and Urea posting minor monthly gains (under 2%), though medium-term trends remain elevated, while Mozambique saw slight declines in NPK and moderate increases in Urea. Seasonal conditions are broadly favorable, supporting planting across most countries, though risks persist from low water levels at Kariba Dam affecting irrigation in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and conflict in northern Mozambique disrupting agricultural activities. West Africa’s staple food markets show broad price easing with isolated volatility driven by improved supply from harvests and seasonal inflows. Maize prices fell sharply in Togo (US$338 → US$304, down 10%) and Ghana (US$407 → US$374, down 8.1%), signaling regional normalization. Rice prices softened across most markets, led by Nigeria’s steep drop (US$586 → US$508, down 13.3%), followed by Ghana (down 9.2%), Togo (down 7.7%), and Burkina Faso (down 7.5%), while Mali remained stable. Millet recorded the largest decline in Niger (US$407 → US$327, down 19.7%), with Burkina Faso also falling 8.1%, while Nigeria edged up 2.2% on localized demand. Sorghum prices decreased broadly, with Niger down 9.9% and Burkina Faso down 7.7%. Overall, these downward adjustments reflect improved availability and harvest inflows, though isolated volatility persists in some markets. Seasonal conditions remain favourable, supporting strong regional cereal output projected at 82.9 million tonnes (+10.4% above the five-year average), despite localized insecurity and socio-economic challenges. Food Security Updates Southern Africa faces widespread food insecurity through early 2026, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes prevalent in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Malawi has the highest proportion of people facing Insufficient Food for Consumption (IFC) at 30.6% (6.8M), up 47.8% over two years with no recent change. Zimbabwe follows at 26.6% (4.5M), rising 5.8% year-on-year. Mozambique stands at 21.3% (7.6M), up 7.6% from last year but down 9.5% over two years, indicating long-term progress despite recent deterioration. Zambia is lowest at 15.1% (3.3M), with a 3.3% annual rise but a 17.5% two-year decline, showing relative resilience. Key drivers include depleted household food stocks from below-average harvests, high staple food prices, inflation, and limited income opportunities. In Malawi and Mozambique, conditions are further strained by lean season pressures, conflict-related displacement, and disease outbreaks, while Zambia struggles with lingering drought impacts, pest infestations, and localised flooding despite some recovery from 2024. Zimbabwe is entering the lean season with expanding Crisis outcomes in deficit-producing areas, although favourable rains and an improved harvest expected in April/May 2026 may help ease conditions. Across the region, poor households are increasingly resorting to negative coping strategies, underscoring the urgent need for targeted assistance and resilience measures. East Africa faces a mixed but largely concerning food security outlook through mid-2026. Ethiopia and Kenya are experiencing severe deterioration, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) projected in parts of Ethiopia and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in pastoral and marginal agricultural zones of both countries due to drought, crop failures, and conflict. South Sudan remains the most critical hotspot, with Crisis and Emergency outcomes and some populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) amid flooding, insecurity, and economic collapse, sustaining a credible risk of famine. Uganda and Tanzania show relative stability but still have significant vulnerable populations—Uganda’s Karamoja and refugee settlements face Crisis and Emergency, while Tanzania has localised Crisis despite overall improvements. Rwanda remains largely Minimal or Stressed, though drought-affected eastern areas risk sliding into Crisis during the lean season. Across the region, climate shocks, insecurity, high food prices, and displacement continue to drive acute food insecurity, leaving millions dependent on humanitarian assistance. In general, food security situation has deteriorated compared to a year ago, with the total number of people facing IFC across five East African countries above their one-year levels. Uganda has the largest number affected—18 million people (35% of its population), up 18% year-on-year and 116.9% over two years. South Sudan shows the highest proportion at 40.2%, with increases of 4.9% and 48.5% over one and two years respectively. Rwanda stands at 29.3%, up 3.6% from last year, while Kenya has 23.6%, rising 23.6% year-on-year but slightly down over two years. Tanzania remains the least affected at 7.4%, though this reflects increases of 5.2% and 10.6% over one and two years. West Africa faces persistent and severe food insecurity, primarily driven by conflict, displacement, and market disruptions. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes dominate in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and northern Nigeria, with pockets of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Ménaka (Mali) and inaccessible LGAs of Borno State (Nigeria), where households have minimal food access and no humanitarian assistance. Niger faces the most severe crisis with 76.6% (21.4M) of its population facing IFC, up 21.4% compared to a year ago. Mali follows at 52.4% (13.2M), showing persistent vulnerability with no major change. Burkina Faso has 46.5% (11.2M), up 11.2% year-on-year. Nigeria has the largest absolute number, 56.4M (23.7%), with volatile trends, up +101% from last year but -37.5% over two years. Côte d’Ivoire has the lowest IFC at 15.6%, although up 5.1% year-on-year. Overall, Niger and Mali show the highest proportional vulnerability, while Nigeria dominates in absolute numbers. Insecurity, flooding, and fuel blockades are eroding livelihoods and purchasing power, while humanitarian response remains limited due to funding shortfalls and access constraints. Although some areas are benefiting from ongoing harvests and improved market supplies, high prices and reduced incomes continue to strain poor households. Southern Nigeria and select zones in Burkina Faso and Mali show Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions, but overall, the region faces escalating needs and heightened vulnerability through mid-2026. Food Trade Updates Kenya and Uganda join Malawi and Zambia in signing the second Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) in goods trade, the first of its kind on the continent. The MRA is key instrument for supporting a more predictable environment for regional food trade and provides some flexibility by reducing the time and costs of trading through the elimination of redundant or repeated testing and certification.
The Government of Kenya has launched a new digital platform, eCustoms App designed to simplify trade, accelerate goods clearance and modernise Kenya’s border operations. The system will allow KRA to process customs declarations faster, be paperless, and be more efficient for traders, transporters, and passengers.
Vodacom Tanzania has launched M-Pesa Global Payment to facilitate cross-border transactions and enhance digital financial inclusion. In partnership with VISA, Alipay, Network International, Magnati, and MTN Uganda, customers can now make global Tap & Pay transactions using the M-Pesa Visa tokenised card; pay merchants in China via Alipay, enabled by Thunes, transact in Dubai through TerraPay-supported merchants, and pay merchants in Uganda directly into MTN MoMo wallets, powered by Thunes, all from the M-Pesa menu or the M-Pesa Super App. |
