Siaka MOMOH
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria(MAN) holds that the upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP to $243 billion could offer a lift in investors confidence and improve headline macroeconomic ratios such as the debt-to-GDP ratio.
This, it states, “should be a sign of economic strength. However, confidence in the economy is anchored not just on size, but on structural resilience, depth of industrial capacity, and productivity growth”.
MAN commends the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the rigorous technical work that led to the rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It states equally noteworthy is the transparent and inclusive approach adopted by NBS that enabled strategic stakeholders to contribute to the GDP rebasing processes and notes the reported real GDP growth of 3.13 percent in Q1 2025 from 2.27% in Q1 2024 “is a modest improvement which indicates that the economy is capable of recovery”.
The rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a critical statistical upgrade that enhances the accuracy of national accounts and reflects structural changes in the economy. The revised nominal GDP estimate, showing an 18.3% year-on-year increase, is a direct outcome of improved data capture, especially in agriculture, services, and informal sector activities.
Notwithstanding, MAN strongly cautions against interpreting this nominal expansion as evidence of significant economic progress. MAN argues that despite the upward revision, real GDP growth remains weak, averaging just 1.95% between 2020 and 2024. It says “this sluggish real growth shows the underlying fragility of Nigeria’s productive base and the capacity of the economy to deliver sustainable and inclusive development”.
Says MAN: “It is important for us to express our concern over the declining role of the industrial sector, a trend that the rebased figures made unmistakably clear. Industry’s share of GDP fell from 27.65% in the 2010 base year to 21.08% under the 2019 rebased structure, marking a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities. While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation.
“Manufacturing is structurally weak, with sub-sectors that should be growth drivers performing below potential, as indicated in the report. Based on the figure released, the average annual growth rate of the manufacturing sector between 2019 and 2024 is negative (-0.76%). This means Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been shrinking in real terms over the last five years. The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised.”
MAN is therefore calling on the government “to treat the rebased GDP not as a celebration of growth, but as a strindent call for structural industrial reforms”.
MAN argues: “Nigeria must re-industrialize to achieve inclusive growth, build export capacity, and reduce dependence on primary commodities and informal activities. We urge the government to prioritize manufacturing in policy, financing, and infrastructure development, because without a strong industrial base, GDP expansion may just become a hollow statistic.”
Potential Impact of the Latest GDP Size on Confidence in the Nigerian Economy
For MAN, “The upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP to $243 billion could offer a lift in investors confidence and improve headline macroeconomic ratios such as the debt-to-GDP ratio. This should be a sign of economic strength. However, confidence in the economy is anchored not just on size, but on structural resilience, depth of industrial capacity, and productivity growth.
“In this regard, we need to refocus on the development of the real and high-impact driven sector. The rebasing exercise, while statistically necessary, may obscures some of the economy’s deep-rooted challenges. Industrial output remains largely declining. Following the rebasing, the industrial sector’s share of GDP dropped from 27.65% in the 2010 base year to 21.08% in the 2019 base year.
“More worrisome is the underperformance of the manufacturing sector. Despite its critical role in job creation, export diversification, and economic transformation, the sector’s contribution to GDP remains low and increasingly volatile. Key subsectors such as oil refining and motor vehicle assembly have recorded consistent declines in real output, eroding Nigeria’s industrial performance.
“This scenario speaks loudly for sustained industry-centric policies, which is already been exemplified by the Industrial Revolution Working Group, infrastructure investments, and improved access to long-term finance to revitalize the industrial sector. This is the way for the growth in GDP to alleviate poverty, create jobs, and contribute to macroeconomic stability.”
