Siaka MOMOH
The aspiration for Nigeria to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is an ambitious but technically attainable goal over the medium to long term, says MAN.
MAN explained: “However, achieving this target is not a matter of arithmetic growth. It demands a strategic transformation of the economy’s foundational structure, particularly the industrial sector. With the newly rebased nominal GDP at $243 billion, reaching the $1 trillion threshold by 2030 would require consistent nominal growth of 12–14% annually, assuming currency stability, or real GDP growth of 6–7% per annum, a figure that is nearly double the current real growth rate of 3.38% recorded in 2024.
“Yet, the road to this milestone is fraught with structural bottlenecks that must be urgently addressed. A growth path that merely expands the size of low-productivity sectors, such as informal trade and consumption-driven services, will only deepen inequality, reinforce economic vulnerability, and perpetuate jobless growth.
“To make a credible path to a $1 trillion economy, Nigeria must prioritise an industrial-led development model. This requires a deliberate and strategic revival of industrial output, with a particular focus on high-value-added and exportable manufactured goods, supported by unmitigated government patronage. Reliable and affordable energy supply must be central to this effort; without stable and cost-effective electricity, the manufacturing sector cannot thrive and contribute meaningfully to the GDP.
“Equally critical is the upgrade of core infrastructure such as transport networks, logistics systems, and broadband connectivity to support efficient production and regional trade integration. A coherent, investor-friendly policy environment across fiscal, trade, and monetary domains is also essential to attract and retain long-term capital.
It adds that “Above all, Nigeria must boost productivity across strategic subsectors such as agro-processing, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and light engineering, where industrial linkages and employment potential are strongest.
Strengthening the naira, curtailing inflation and ensuring inclusive, sustained growth must be central to any credible path toward this milestone.
“We should avoid a seeing the actualisation in nominal terms that may be inflated by rising prices. Such growth without real sector expansion risks being purely cosmetic. Moreover, any substantial depreciation of the naira against the dollar would undermine progress, as the target is dollar-denominated. This is why the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria consistently advocate for policies that drive real productivity, particularly through enhanced local manufacturing and high-valued export performance. The Industrial Revolution Working Group has a lot of work to do in this direction.
On this note, MAN calls on the government to make industrial transformation the anchor of Nigeria’s economic strategy.It argues “Achieving a $1 trillion economy is not simply about increasing output. It is about building an economy that works, that creates jobs, that competes, and that uplifts the majority. Without a strong, modern, and competitive manufacturing base, the $1 trillion goal may be a struggle and measured only in numbers, not in national prosperity”.
